Tuesday, September 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher U.S. stock index futures and crude oil prices, and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is the last trading day of the month and the last trading day of the quarter, which makes today an especially important trading day, from a technical perspective. Monthly and quarterly high or low closes in a market today would be very technically significant. There are several markets that are poised for monthly and quarterly low closes today.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning trading, on a corrective bounce from big losses on Monday.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,125.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight contract low of 1,112.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,154.40 and then at 1,175.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,176.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,151.50
1st Support:------ 1,081.80
2nd Support:------ 1,044.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,188.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,258.20
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,507.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Monday's contract low of 1,490.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,550.50 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,604.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,562.60
1st Support:------ 1,439.40
2nd Support:------ 1,366.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,635.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,758.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,600 and then more stops just below support at 10,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,750 and then just above resistance at 10,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,877
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,636
1st Support:------ 10,258
2nd Support:------ 10,041
1st Resistance:--- 10,853
2nd Resistance:--- 11,231
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today, after big gains on Monday. I look for more flight to quality moves into bonds and notes amid investor uncertainty.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 1/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 2/32 and then at 118 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 11/32
1st Support:----- 117 22/32
2nd Support:----- 115 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 123 18/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 116.25.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.24.0 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 9/32
1st Support:----- 114 19/32
2nd Support:----- 112 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 1120 even
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 78.46 and then at 78.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.73 and then at 77.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.46. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 1.4313 and then just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4400 and then at the overnight high of 1.4466. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4335. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a flight to quality move. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $910.00 and then at the overnight high of $920.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $896.20 and then at $890.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $890.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today, on a corrective bounce from big losses Monday. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $100.00 and then just above resistance at 101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $97.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $102.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, amid mixed "outside markets"--higher crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar. Grain traders will scrutinize this morning's USDA quarterly grain stocks report. However, grain traders' main focus is on the outside markets for the near term. Seasonal harvest pressures, weak basis levels and generally good weather for corn and soybeans are bearish underlying fundamental factors.