Monday, September 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply lower crude oil and U.S. stock index futures prices, and a very strong U.S. dollar as the government's financial sector bailout package appears close to passage.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. financial bailout package is now close to being signed into law amid weekend compromises on both sides of the aisle. However, the U.S. stock indexes are under strong pressure to start the week, while crude oil and most other commodity prices are lower to sharply lower. Traders appear now to be focusing on the fact any bailout package will not cure the ailing U.S. and world economies that are slipping into recession. Deflationary pressures are back on traders' front burner to start this week.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning trading. The bears have downside technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is just above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,193.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,180.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,212.50 and then at the overnight high of 1,221.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,190.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,207.20
1st Support:------ 1,192.35
2nd Support:------ 1,170.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,229.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,244.20
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at last week's low of 1,630.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,612.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,665.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,685.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,678.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,663.10
1st Support:------ 1,641.70
2nd Support:------ 1,608.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,696.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,717.60
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,950 and then more stops just below support at 10,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,000 and then just above resistance at 11,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,891
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,057
1st Support:------ 10,945
2nd Support:------ 10,742
1st Resistance:--- 11,260
2nd Resistance:--- 11,372
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today, on a flight to quality move amid investor uncertainty. December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 118 13/32 and then at 118 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 9/32
1st Support:----- 116 27/32
2nd Support:----- 116 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 10/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.15.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 114 24/32
1st Support:----- 114 12/32
2nd Support:----- 113 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 17/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.46 and then at 78.75. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.75 and then at 77.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.46. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4313 and then just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4400 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4335. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
GOLD
Gold is slightly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at $903.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $880.00 and then at the overnight low of $872.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $890.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $104.00 and then just above resistance at 105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $102.20 and then more sell stops just below support at $101.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $102.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets"--sharply lower crude oil prices and a sharply stronger U.S. dollar. Grain traders will continue to focus on the outside markets for the near term. Seasonal harvest pressures and generally good weather for corn and soybeans are bearish underlying fundamental factors.