Wednesday, September 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Okay, how many of you traders out there have thought about trading full-time to make your living? I'll bet many of you have. I wrote a feature story a while back called "When to Quit Your Day Job." The feature discusses what it takes to become a full-time trader, including a few key questions all traders must ask themselves before taking the step to trade full-time. If you'd like to read the story, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach the story and email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. The bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. On the daily bar charts for the stock indexes, I see bearish diamond patterns that have formed the past couple weeks.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,186.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,175.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,210.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,222.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,190.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,198.50
1st Support:------ 1,174.50
2nd Support:------ 1,162.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,211.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,235.00
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,648.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,625.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,677.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,701.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,678.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,666.50
1st Support:------ 1,632.00
2nd Support:------ 1,613.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,685.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,719.50
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,834 and then more stops just below support at 10,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,000 and then just above resistance at 11,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,037
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,944
1st Support:------ 10,744
2nd Support:------ 10,633
1st Resistance:--- 11,055
2nd Resistance:--- 11,255
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher today. December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 25/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at the overnight low of 116 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 27/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 9/32
1st Support:----- 116 23/32
2nd Support:----- 116 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 14/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.12.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 114.16.5 and then at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 even
1st Support:----- 114 16/32
2nd Support:----- 114 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 29/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 77.11. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.70 and then at 76.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.49. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4614 and then just below support at 1.4550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4697 and then at 1.4750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4567. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0