Friday, August 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
U.S. traders are heading into a three-day holiday weekend with much market uncertainty, due to Hurricane Gustav bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico and expected to hit the U.S. Gulf coast on Monday. Trading next Tuesday is likely to be very, very active in many markets no matter what happens with Gustav. Tuesday is also the first trading day of the month. Crude oil and the value of the U.S. dollar will continue to be key "outside markets" for many other markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading remains choppy, lackluster and sideways very recently.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,290.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,280.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,301.50 and then at 1,303.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,296.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,280.40
1st Support:------ 1,275.25
2nd Support:------ 1,266.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,288.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,293.90
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,885.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,926.50 and then at 1,940.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,920.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,917.20
1st Support:------ 1,907.85
2nd Support:------ 1,902.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,922.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,931.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,650 and then more stops just below support at 11,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 11,701 and then just above resistance at 11,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,613
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,649
1st Support:------ 11,596
2nd Support:------ 11,503
1st Resistance:--- 11,742
2nd Resistance:--- 11,795
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 5/32 and then at the contract high of 118 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 26/32 and then at 117 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 14/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 26/32
1st Support:----- 117 16/32
2nd Support:----- 117 even
1st Resistance:-- 118 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 20/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 115.29.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.20.0 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.13.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 21/32
1st Support:----- 115 14/32
2nd Support:----- 115 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 6/32