Thursday, August 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil and gold prices and a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Hurricane Gustav has taken center stage in the energy markets. Remember that crude oil is and will continue to be a key "outside market" for many other markets. Any higher volatility in the energy markets in the coming days would likely spill over into other markets. Here is an interesting observation: Two months ago, if a major hurricane would have been bearing down on the heart of U.S. oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico, it's very likely crude oil futures prices would have traded limit up, and maybe on more than just one day. While crude oil prices have rallied due to Gustav, the rally cannot yet be considered a strong one. Indeed, the psychology of the crude oil market has changed markedly in two months' time. The bulls are much less powerful. If crude prices continue to firm up into the weekend, then the market could be set up for a big decline come next Tuesday morning--IF Gustav does not inflict serious damage to oil installations in the Gulf.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy, lackluster and sideways very recently, as traders are now thinking about the last U.S. holiday weekend before the unofficial end of summer.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,275.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,265.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the Wednesday's high of 1,285.10 and then at 1,294.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,270.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,277.60
1st Support:------ 1,270.05
2nd Support:------ 1,258.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,289.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,297.20
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,892.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,882.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,910.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,916.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,890.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,900.20
1st Support:------ 1,883.85
2nd Support:------ 1,865.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,918.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,934.40
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,450 and then more stops just below support at 11,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,554 and then just above resistance at 11,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,504
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,475
1st Support:------ 11,397
2nd Support:------ 11,296
1st Resistance:--- 11,576
2nd Resistance:--- 11,654
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at this week's high of 119 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 14/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 17/32
1st Support:----- 118 6/32
2nd Support:----- 117 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 6/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 17/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.00.0 and then the contract high of 117.04.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.24.5 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.19.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 26/32
1st Support:----- 116 17/32
2nd Support:----- 116 even
1st Resistance:-- 117 11/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 20/32