Wednesday, August 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil and gold prices and a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The rest of this week, Hurricane Gustav will likely take center stage in the energy markets. Remember that crude oil is a key "outside market" for many other markets. Any higher volatility in the energy markets in the coming days, which is likely, will likely spill over into other markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy recently. The indexes have "rolled over" from their gentle uptrends from the July lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last week's low of 1,261.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,274.00 and then at 1,280.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,270.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,270.00
1st Support:------ 1,264.50
2nd Support:------ 1,257.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,277.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,282.70
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,877.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,860.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,904.00 and then at 1,915.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,872.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,890.85
1st Support:------ 1,877.70
2nd Support:------ 1,863.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,904.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,917.85
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 11,340 and then more stops just below support at 11,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,450 and then just above resistance at 11,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,343
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,396
1st Support:------ 11,356
2nd Support:------ 11,299
1st Resistance:--- 11,453
2nd Resistance:--- 11,493
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 25/32 and then at this week's high of 119 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 11/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 18/32
1st Support:----- 118 9/32
2nd Support:----- 118 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.28.5 and then above resistance at this week's high of 117.01.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.17.5 and then at 116.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 24/32
1st Support:----- 116 15/32
2nd Support:----- 116 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 8/32