Tuesday, August 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply lower crude oil prices and a solidly higher U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It looks like most raw commodity markets will be under selling pressure today amid the bearish "outside markets"--lower crude oil and a stronger U.S. dollar. Meantime, the Treasury market bulls are flexing their bullish muscles this week, amid the stronger greenback. My bias is that there is still more room on the downside for crude oil prices.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy recently. The indexes have "rolled over" from their gentle uptrends from the July lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,263.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,261.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,275.00 and then at 1,280.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,270.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,274.30
1st Support:------ 1,256.60
2nd Support:------ 1,246.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,284.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,301.80
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,887.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,875.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,915.00 and then at Monday's high of 1,930.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,872.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,904.00
1st Support:------ 1,878.00
2nd Support:------ 1,861.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,921.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,947.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 11,360 and then more stops just below support at 11,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,450 and then just above resistance at 11,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,343
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,436
1st Support:------ 11,308
2nd Support:------ 11,231
1st Resistance:--- 11,513
2nd Resistance:--- 11,641
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 26/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at 118 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 14/32
1st Support:----- 117 26/32
2nd Support:----- 117 even
1st Resistance:-- 119 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 28/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 117.01.5 and then above resistance at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.24.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 20/32
1st Support:----- 116 6/32
2nd Support:----- 115 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 23/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is trading solidly higher in early trading today and hit a fresh six-month high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.71 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.50 and then at 77.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.12. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading and hit a fresh six-month low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4550 and then just below support at 1.4500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4600 and then at 1.4650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4682. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5