Monday, August 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a rebound in crude oil prices after strong losses on Friday, weaker U.S. stock indexes and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Friday's action was key in the two important "outside markets"--crude oil and the U.S. dollar. The big sell off in crude oil and the big rally in the U.S. dollar index Friday reconfirmed that a near-term downtrend remains in place for crude oil and that a near-term uptrend remains in place for the dollar index. That's near-term bearish for most commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy recently. The indexes have "rolled over" from their gentle uptrends from the July lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,286.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,280.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,294.00 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,294.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,285.95
1st Support:------ 1,277.90
2nd Support:------ 1,263.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,300.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,308.35
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,922.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 1,902.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,936.00 and then at Friday's high of 1,942.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,933.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,924.50
1st Support:------ 1,907.00
2nd Support:------ 1,884.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,947.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,964.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 11,550 and then more stops just below support at 11,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 11,635 and then just above resistance at 11,685. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,569
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,579
1st Support:------ 11,523
2nd Support:------ 11,429
1st Resistance:--- 11,673
2nd Resistance:--- 11,729
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 5/32 and then at last week's high of 118 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 24/32 and then at the overnight low of 117 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 23/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 19/32
1st Support:----- 117 8/32
2nd Support:----- 116 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 12/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.14.0 and then above resistance at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.30.5 and then at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 2/32
1st Support:----- 115 22/32
2nd Support:----- 115 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 25/32