Friday, August 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar after strong losses Thursday, and lower crude oil prices after strong gains on Thursday.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
"One day does not a trend make." That's an old market saying and it pertains to price action in the key "outside markets" crude oil and the U.S. dollar on Thursday. The big gains in crude and the big decline in the U.S. dollar have some thinking that their recent price trends have reversed. While that may be the case, it's going to take more than one day's price action to make that summation. Already early today, crude oil is on the defensive and the dollar is firmer. Strong follow-through price action in these two key markets today or early next week would be an early indicator that the recent price trends in crude oil and the U.S. dollar are reversing. One more thing: The neat thing about being in this fascinating business for 25 years is that I've heard so many old market sayings. Most of those sayings have solid merit, too. I wrote a feature story a while back on some of those market sayings. If you'd like to read it, and I think you'd enjoy it, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach the feature and email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy recently. The indexes do appear to be "rolling over" from their gentle uptrends from the July lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,280.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,271.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,288.20 and then at 1,295.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,271.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,273.50
1st Support:------ 1,265.50
2nd Support:------ 1,255.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,283.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,291.50
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,902.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,888.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,936.00 and then at 1,945.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,911.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,904.40
1st Support:------ 1,890.85
2nd Support:------ 1,874.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,920.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,934.40
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 11,310 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 11,290. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,500 and then just above resistance at 11,550. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,502
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,396
1st Support:------ 11,322
2nd Support:------ 11,236
1st Resistance:--- 11,482
2nd Resistance:--- 11,556
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 30/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 11/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 23/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 25/32
1st Support:----- 117 10/32
2nd Support:----- 116 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 24/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.15.0 and then above resistance at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.31.5 and then at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 14/32
1st Support:----- 116 even
2nd Support:----- 115 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 5/32