Thursday, August 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The next two trading days will be extra important for the crude oil market. The bulls have managed to stop the steep downtrend as prices have been trading sideways on the daily bar chart for two weeks. A bullish weekly high close on Friday would provide the crude oil bulls with fresh upside technical momentum to begin to suggest that a near-term low is in place.--Jim
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $119.00 and then just above resistance at $120.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $116.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $118.14. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading has again turned choppy. The indexes appear to be "rolling over" from their gentle uptrends from the July lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,264.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,261.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,275.30 and then at 1,282.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,271.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,270.45
1st Support:------ 1,264.40
2nd Support:------ 1,254.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,279.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,285.95
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,901.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,879.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,915.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,936.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,911.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,918.00
1st Support:------ 1,900.00
2nd Support:------ 1,884.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,934.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,952.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 11,290 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,450 and then just above resistance at 11,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,335
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,382
1st Support:------ 11,314
2nd Support:------ 11,222
1st Resistance:--- 11,474
2nd Resistance:--- 11,542
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer again in early trading today. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 9/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 28/32 and then at Wednesday's low of 117 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 23/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 31/32
1st Support:----- 117 20/32
2nd Support:----- 117 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 27/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.27.5 and then above resistance at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.16.5 and then at 116.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 116 18/32
1st Support:----- 116 9/32
2nd Support:----- 115 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 10/32