Friday, July 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The crude oil market and other commodities have been beaten up the past couple weeks. However, with the still technically very weak posture of the U.S. dollar index, which is a main barometer of the health of the greenback, the commodity bulls still have some home for better days ahead. A fresh slide in the value of the dollar will likely find short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest in many commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading. The bulls have lost upside near-term technical momentum as the indexes are now in danger of posting bearish weekly low closes today.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,247.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,238.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,256.30 and then at 1,270.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,263.30
1st Support:------ 1,241.70
2nd Support:------ 1,229.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,275.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,297.00
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,788.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,828.25 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,808.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,831.50
1st Support:------ 1,801.00
2nd Support:------ 1,782.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,850.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,880.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,400 and then just above resistance at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,250
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,435
1st Support:------ 11,251
2nd Support:------ 11,150
1st Resistance:--- 11,536
2nd Resistance:--- 11,720
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Treasury bulls have gained some fresh near-term technical momentum and would gain more by producing bullish weekly high closes on Friday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 14/32 and then at 115 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at 114 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 20/32
1st Support:----- 114 3/32
2nd Support:----- 113 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.16.0 and then above resistance at 114.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.06.5 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 28/32
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 112 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 1/32