Thursday, July 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I like to have as many tools in my trading tool box as possible (just like I do in my big Craftsman tool box that stands five-feet tall in my garage!) The weekly commitment of traders report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is a valuable trading tool to find out what the "big boys" are up to--both big speculators and commercial traders. I wrote a feature story a while back on how to interpret those weekly COT reports. I'd be happy to email it to you. Just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are mixed in early morning trading. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum after recent gains.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,273.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,284.90 and then at the July high of 1,294.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,282.15
1st Support:------ 1,273.30
2nd Support:------ 1,264.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,291.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,300.15
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,862.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,871.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,880.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,847.35
1st Support:------ 1,823.70
2nd Support:------ 1,798.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,872.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,896.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,600 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,680. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,613
1st Support:------ 11,545
2nd Support:------ 11,478
1st Resistance:--- 11,680
2nd Resistance:--- 11,748
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today, on short covering after recent losses. Treasury bears still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 5/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 22/32 and then at Wednesday's low of 113 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 19/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.16.0 and then above resistance at 113.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.04.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 5/32
1st Support:----- 112 29/32
2nd Support:----- 112 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 23/32