Wednesday, July 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices that are leading a general sell off in the raw commodity futures complex.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It appears that the previously bullish large speculative and fund raw commodity futures traders are now really spooked and in a liquidation mode. Crude oil is the key "outside market" leading the declines in the commodity sector. In recent months, traders were willing to step in and "buy the breaks" in the commodity markets, and especially in crude oil. However, now in the crude oil market and in other commodity futures markets the trading psychology has changed to one of "sell the rallies." Most commodity market bulls are wounded as their markets are becoming technically weaker.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum after recent gains.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,273.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,284.20 and then at the July high of 1,294.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,292.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,266.60
1st Support:------ 1,255.15
2nd Support:------ 1,236.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,285.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,297.10
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,850.00 and then at 1,868.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,813.00
1st Support:------ 1,798.70
2nd Support:------ 1,773.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,838.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,853.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,564 and then more stops just below support at 11,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,700 and then just above resistance at 11,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,514
1st Support:------ 11,425
2nd Support:------ 11,287
1st Resistance:--- 11,652
2nd Resistance:--- 11,741
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today, amid a rebounding U.S. stock market. Treasury bears have near-term technical momentum on their side. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 5/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 17/32 and then at 113 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 9/32
1st Support:----- 113 16/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 19/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.13.5 and then above resistance at 113.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 20/32
1st Support:----- 113 even
2nd Support:----- 112 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 21/32