Tuesday, July 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures prices, following some bearish earnings reports released after the close on Monday and early today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold has been in a solid price uptrend for five weeks and is nearing major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 an ounce. Gold has regained a safe-haven status among traders, amid the financial market uncertainty. With gold so close to the $1,000 mark, my bias is it will probably be hit sooner rather than later. Gold at or above $1,000 an ounce also likely means a U.S. dollar that will continue to be under pressure against the other major currencies in the coming weeks.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning trading. The bulls had recently gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but appear poised to lose it today.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,247.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,238.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,258.30 and then at Monday's high of 1,268.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,242.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,261.90
1st Support:------ 1,255.10
2nd Support:------ 1,248.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,268.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,275.20
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,791.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the July low of 1,765.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,821.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,828.50
1st Support:------ 1,812.00
2nd Support:------ 1,796.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,844.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,860.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,410 and then just above resistance at 11,465. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,261
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,473
1st Support:------ 11,402
2nd Support:------ 11,338
1st Resistance:--- 11,537
2nd Resistance:--- 11,608
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, amid a likely weaker start for the U.S. stock indexes today. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 2/32 and then at 115 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 21/32 and then at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 12/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 17/32
1st Support:----- 114 9/32
2nd Support:----- 113 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 even
2nd Resistance:-- 115 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.09.0 and then above resistance at 114.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 17/32
2nd Support:----- 113 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 15/32