Monday, July 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in crude oil futures prices after last week's big losses.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock indexes have made a significant recovery from the recent lows. If the indexes can post bullish weekly high closes this week--or close to them--then that would be an early technical clue that lows are in place and that prices can work sideways to higher in the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading, as they are making a decent rebound from the recent lows. The bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but still have more heavy lifting to do in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,256.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,275.00 and then at 1,278.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,279.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,254.80
1st Support:------ 1,246.80
2nd Support:------ 1,233.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,268.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,276.40
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,850.00 and then at last week's high of 1,868.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,835.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,832.75
1st Support:------ 1,817.00
2nd Support:------ 1,805.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,844.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,860.25
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,600 and then just above resistance at 11,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,659
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,459
1st Support:------ 11,407
2nd Support:------ 11,314
1st Resistance:--- 11,552
2nd Resistance:--- 11,604
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls have faded recently amid the rebound in the U.S. stock market. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 114 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 114 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 even and then at 113 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 19/32
1st Support:----- 113 28/32
2nd Support:----- 113 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 25/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.29.0 and then above resistance at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.10.5 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 20/32
1st Support:----- 113 12/32
2nd Support:----- 113 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 7/32