Monday, May 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher gold and crude oil prices and a modestly weaker U.S dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I don't want to beat a dead horse, traders, but the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other currencies is still very likely going to be an influence on the markets you trade. The greenback is still showing some early clues of bottoming out and that's a worry for commodity market bulls and a relief for the stock market bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. However, the bulls do have upside technical momentum on their side as near-term price uptrends are in place.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,401.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,390.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,416.00 and then at last week's high of 1,426.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,417.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,416.10
1st Support:------ 1,405.25
2nd Support:------ 1,394.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,426.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,437.50
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,962.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,950.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,987.50 and then at last week's high of 2,008.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,921.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,989.50
1st Support:------ 1,970.75
2nd Support:------ 1,951.25
1st Resistance:--- 2,009.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,027.75
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,970 and then more stops just below support at 12,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,120 and then just above resistance at 13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,795
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,050
1st Support:------ 12,980
2nd Support:------ 12,900
1st Resistance:--- 13,130
2nd Resistance:--- 13,200
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term technical control, with neither having much success. Daily charts still show downtrends in place, however.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at 116 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 115 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 2/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 9/32
1st Support:----- 115 22/32
2nd Support:----- 115 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 15/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.00.0 and then at 115.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.25.5 and then more sell stops just below support at last week's low of 114.20.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.08.0
1st Support:------ 114.12.0
2nd Support:------ 113.25.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.23.0