Tuesday, May 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold and crude oil prices have become detached after spending months in a close trading relationship. Gold's price downtrend from the winter highs is an early warning signal to all raw commodity market bulls that at least some of the air is coming out of the bullish balloon in commodity markets. The recent steadier U.S. dollar is another warning signal for the commodity market bulls. Any sustained strength in the greenback would likely put serious downside pressure on many commodity markets, including crude oil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Bears still have some near-term technical momentum as prices are trending sideways to lower so far this month.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,390.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,382.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,407.00 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,404.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,398.70
1st Support:------ 1,392.35
2nd Support:------ 1,380.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,411.05
2nd Resistance:--- 1,417.40
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at last week's low of 1,980.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 1,962.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at May high of 2,008.25 and then at 2,025.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,985.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,988.20
1st Support:------ 1,972.35
2nd Support:------ 1,946.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,014.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,030.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,800 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 12,738. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,897 and then just above resistance at 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,833
1st Support:------ 12,769
2nd Support:------ 12,674
1st Resistance:--- 12,928
2nd Resistance:--- 12,992
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bulls are bears are struggling for near-term technical control, with neither having much of an edge at present.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 21/32 and then at Monday's high of 117 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at 116 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 24/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 11/32
1st Support:----- 116 25/32
2nd Support:----- 116 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 11/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.06.5 and then above resistance at last week's high of 116.13.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.23.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.21.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.02.0
1st Support:------ 115.24.0
2nd Support:------ 115.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.10.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.20.0