Thursday, May 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that those raw commodity markets that had seen major bull runs, such as metals, energies, grains and some softs markets, will now experience some downside turbulence in the coming weeks, and have already put in major market tops. Reason: The U.S. dollar is starting to show some early clues of bottoming out. If the greenback continues to recover in the coming weeks, it's a safer bet that commodity prices, in general, will trend lower. However, if the U.S. dollar index sets a fresh low in the near term, all bets are off and the commodity bulls would be reinvigorated.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading.
Trading may be quieter today heading into the key U.S. jobs report on Friday morning.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,379.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,370.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the 1,400.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,407.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,388.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,392.20
1st Support:------ 1,377.35
2nd Support:------ 1,368.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,400.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,415.70
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,923.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,916.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,950.00 and then at this week's high of 1,958.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,927.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,932.60
1st Support:------ 1,907.20
2nd Support:------ 1,891.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,948.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,974.10
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,795 and then more stops just below support at 12,740. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,900 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,872
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,867
1st Support:------ 12,735
2nd Support:------ 12,664
1st Resistance:--- 12,938
2nd Resistance:--- 13,070
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to firmer in early trading today. Bulls have regained some fresh near-term technical momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 8/32 and then at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 27/32 and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 20/32
1st Support:----- 115 31/32
2nd Support:----- 115 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 6/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.17.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.23.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.19.0
1st Support:------ 115.05.0
2nd Support:------ 114.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.22.0