Tuesday, April 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil and gold prices. U.S. stock indexes are weaker early today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
While the evidence far from conclusive yet, the recent rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar, including today's price strength, is the strongest evidence yet that the greenback has bottomed out and will begin to appreciate against the other major currencies. A stronger U.S. dollar would likely put at least near-term market tops in commodity markets that have recently scored all-time or multi-year highs. A stronger greenback would be bearish for Treasuries and bullish for the U.S. stock market.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading may be quieter heading into this week's FOMC meeting and the U.S. jobs report to end the week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,390.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,380.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,404.60 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,374.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,398.70
1st Support:------ 1,392.80
2nd Support:------ 1,388.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,403.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,409.40
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,898.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,882.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,927.50 and then at last week's high of 1,950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,929.10
1st Support:------ 1,916.20
2nd Support:------ 1,905.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,939.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,952.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,850 and then more stops just below support at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,900 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,886
1st Support:------ 12,843
2nd Support:------ 12,806
1st Resistance:--- 12,923
2nd Resistance:--- 12,966
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 116 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 30/32 and then at 115 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 26/32
1st Support:----- 115 15/32
2nd Support:----- 114 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 27/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.24.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.07.0
1st Support:------ 115.01.0
2nd Support:------ 114.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.26.0