Friday, April 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and firmer U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is again stronger in the early going today, on follow-through strength from gains on Wednesday and Thursday. A bullish weekly high close in the U.S. dollar index would be a very early technical clue that the greenback may have finally bottomed out. A bottom in the dollar would be bullish for the U.S. stock indexes and bearish for the commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, as the bulls are regaining some near-term upside technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,383.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,368.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,384.40
1st Support:------ 1,369.75
2nd Support:------ 1,353.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,400.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,415.30
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,914.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,900.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,930.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,883.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,920.60
1st Support:------ 1,891.20
2nd Support:------ 1,861.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,950.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,979.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,800 and then more stops just below support at 12,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,940 and then just above resistance at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,824
1st Support:------ 12,707
2nd Support:------ 12,584
1st Resistance:--- 12,947
2nd Resistance:--- 13,064
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today as the stock indexes are firmer and there ideas U.S. interest rates are near a bottom. Bears have fresh near-term downside technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 24/32 and then at the overnight high of 116 3/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 8/32 and then at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 9/32
1st Support:----- 115 12/32
2nd Support:----- 114 22/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 28/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 115.15.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.20.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.17.0
1st Support:------ 114.27.0
2nd Support:------ 114.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.02.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.24.0