Monday, November 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index futures prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Recent technical price action on the daily charts for the U.S. stock indexes, including last week's bullish weekly high closes, is now hinting that near-term market lows are in place. Remember that during an economic downturn the stock market generally puts in a low well before all the bad economic news is reported.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. While bulls have gained some near-term upside technical momentum recently, the sailing ahead for them will still find some rough waters here and there.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 962.80 and then at 950.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 984.00 and then at 992.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 963.80
1st Support:-------- 943.60
2nd Support:-------- 919.90
1st Resistance:----- 987.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,007.70
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,332.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 1,304.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,362.00 and then at 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,319.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,334.35
1st Support:------ 1,306.70
2nd Support:------ 1,276.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,364.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,392.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,250 and then more stops just below support at 9,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,425 and then just above resistance at 9,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,114
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 9,271
1st Support:------ 9,117
2nd Support:------ 8,936
1st Resistance:--- 9,452
2nd Resistance:--- 9,606
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady early today. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 19/32 and then at the October low of 112 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 16/32 and then at 114 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 9/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 24/32
1st Support:----- 112 9/32
2nd Support:----- 111 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 3/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.16.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the 113.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 112.27.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 19/32
1st Support:----- 112 16/32
2nd Support:----- 111 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 8/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. No serious chart damage has occurred recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.43 and then at 86.95. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.52 and then at 85.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.59. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2712 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2653. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2880 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2818. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $739.50 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $726.00 and then at Friday's low of $717.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $730.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $67.50 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 69.19. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $65.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe. The key "outside markets" are in a neutral posture today, as crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is also weaker. The bulls are working on market bottoms in corn and soybeans, but their progress has been tepid. Wheat bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage.