Thursday, October 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower gold prices and a sharply stronger U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The economic signals I've been seeing the past few weeks still suggest to me a deflationary world economic environment as opposed to an inflationary environment. Just Wednesday, U.S. auto makers reported a shocking drop in sales in September. Friday's U.S. employment data is forecast to show a large drop in jobs. This is a bearish portent for the commodity markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,150.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,136.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,174.00 and then at 1,190.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,176.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,161.65
1st Support:------ 1,150.60
2nd Support:------ 1,132.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,179.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,190.55
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,561.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,551.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,588.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,600.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,604.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,576.75
1st Support:------ 1,553.00
2nd Support:------ 1,527.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,602.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,626.25
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,750 and then more stops just below support at 10,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,900 and then just above resistance at 10,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,877
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,812
1st Support:------ 10,725
2nd Support:------ 10,562
1st Resistance:--- 10,975
2nd Resistance:--- 11,062
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage amid investor uncertainty.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 6/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 118 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 10/32
1st Support:----- 117 2/32
2nd Support:----- 115 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 31/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.19.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 114.27.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 8/32
1st Support:----- 114 16/32
2nd Support:----- 113 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 21/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.44 and then at the contract high of 80.90. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at the overnight low of 79.73. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.06. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3864 and then just below support at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at the overnight high of 1.4046. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4204. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $881.60 and then at $890.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $867.40 and then at $860.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $868.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $100.00 and then just above resistance at 101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.02 and then more sell stops just below support at $95.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $98.08. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to lower in overnight trading. The "outside markets" are bearish again today--lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar. Seasonal harvest pressures, weak basis levels and generally good weather for corn and soybeans are bearish underlying fundamental factors.