Wednesday, October 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I am in the camp of those who believe the recent rally in gold futures prices has not been that impressive. One of the CNBC "Fast Money" guys (I can't remember his name.) is also in that camp. He said the other day that if it were back in the 1970s or 1980s, had the U.S. financial sector come apart like the situation at present, gold prices would have appreciated much, much more than the recent rally in gold. In fact, the past two weeks as the financial crisis has deteriorated gold prices have basically been trading in a sideways and choppy trading range.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,152.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,136.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,171.30 and then at 1,180.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,176.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,151.75
1st Support:------ 1,128.50
2nd Support:------ 1,089.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,190.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,213.95
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,585.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,550.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,607.00 and then at 1,630.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,604.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,569.40
1st Support:------ 1,531.85
2nd Support:------ 1,469.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,631.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,669.40
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,750 and then more stops just below support at 10,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,850 and then just above resistance at 10,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,877
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,762
1st Support:------ 10,638
2nd Support:------ 10,416
1st Resistance:--- 10,984
2nd Resistance:--- 11,108
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Trading has turned choppy, but I look for more flight to quality moves into bonds and notes amid continued investor uncertainty.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 5/32 and then at 118 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 1/32
1st Support:----- 116 even
2nd Support:----- 114 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 6/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.09.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.15.5 and then at this week's low of 114.09.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 9/32
1st Support:----- 113 25/32
2nd Support:----- 112 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 21/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 79.62 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.04 and then at 78.46. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.06. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 1.4060 and then just below support at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4211 and then at 1.4300. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4204. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $888.50 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $873.60 and then at $868.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $890.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $101.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 102.84. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $97.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $102.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering from recent losses. The "outside markets" are bearish today--lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Seasonal harvest pressures, weak basis levels and generally good weather for corn and soybeans are bearish underlying fundamental factors.