Monday, July 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharp losses in the grain futures markets, amid some better rainfall chances in the Corn Belt this week.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
"Oscillators" such as the Relative Strength Index and slow stochastics are an excellent gauge of near-term market momentum. Intra-day traders should pay extra close attention to them, and they can be used in several ways. I wrote a feature on the RSI and stochastics a while back and if you email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com I'll email you back the feature.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in quieter early morning electronic trading, following the big gains last week. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,553.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,550.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's contract high of 1,565.80 and then at 1,570.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,559.80
1st Support:------ 1,553.80
2nd Support:------ 1,547.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,566.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,572.10
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 856.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 850.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 864.25 and then at 870.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 859.30
1st Support:------ 856.55
2nd Support:------ 853.80
1st Resistance:--- 862.05
2nd Resistance:--- 864.80
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,925 and then more stops just below support at 13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's contract high of 14,013 and then at 14,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,970
1st Support:------ 13,928
2nd Support:------ 13,822
1st Resistance:--- 14,016
2nd Resistance:--- 14,058
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher early today. Trading has turned choppier as the bulls and bears struggle for near-term technical momentum. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls do have some more positive fundamentals on their side, and my bias is that the downside is limited in the Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 107 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 107 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 30/32
1st Support:----- 106 18/32
2nd Support:----- 106 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 22/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 105.12.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.05.0
1st Support:------ 104.30.0
2nd Support:------ 104.23.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.12.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.19.0