Thursday, May 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
FOREX and currency futures traders: The U.S. dollar index is near some major longer-term technical support levels that have reversed major price downtrends the past 20 years. That's a strong signal that there is not much downside left in the greenback, and that a major low is close at hand or already in place in the U.S. dollar index.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to weaker in early morning electronic trading. But bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand. However, the indexes, especially the Dow, are due for a significant downside "correction" at some point in the not too distant future.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,510.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,502.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,519.50 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,514.20
1st Support:------ 1,510.05
2nd Support:------ 1,502.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,522.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.25
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 810.30. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 825.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 830.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 818.80
1st Support:------ 815.05
2nd Support:------ 808.60
1st Resistance:--- 825.25
2nd Resistance:--- 829.00
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,500 and then more stops just below support at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's contract high of 13,532 and then at 13,600. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,488
1st Support:------ 13,444
2nd Support:------ 13,358
1st Resistance:--- 13,574
2nd Resistance:--- 13,618
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 111 6/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 110 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 111 21/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 31/32
1st Support:----- 110 24/32
2nd Support:----- 110 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 12/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.24.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 107.28.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the May low of 107.18.0, and then more sell stops just below support at the April low of 107.05.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.23.0
1st Support:------ 107.19.0
2nd Support:------ 107.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.31.0