Wednesday, May 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
If the U.S. stock indexes do see a significant downside "correction" in the near future, which is my bias, then the T-Bond and T-Note bulls will likely benefit, possibly in a big way. Tuesday was a good example of assets being pulled away from the U.S. Treasuries and put into the U.S. stock market. Bonds and notes could not even post a rally Tuesday, in the wake a bullish CPI report.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,502.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,496.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,519.50 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,510.25
1st Support:------ 1,501.00
2nd Support:------ 1,493.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,517.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.95
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 810.30. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 820.00 and then at 825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 820.75
1st Support:------ 811.50
2nd Support:------ 805.75
1st Resistance:--- 826.50
2nd Resistance:--- 835.75
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,357 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's contract high of 13,518 and then at 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,438
1st Support:------ 13,357
2nd Support:------ 13,277
1st Resistance:--- 13,518
2nd Resistance:--- 13,599
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 111 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 31/32
1st Support:----- 110 19/32
2nd Support:----- 110 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 21/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.28.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at the May low of 107.18.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.24.0
1st Support:------ 107.18.0
2nd Support:------ 107.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.04.0